Flooding in Pakistan provides a major reminder of the catastrophic impact of climate change. The increased monsoon rains and glacier melt in northern mountains led to a third of Pakistan being underwater, nearly 1,500 people died and 33 million people have been affected, with 1.7m homes destroyed. Pakistan is one of the countries least responsible for the climate crisis, yet it is the poor people there that are suffering the hardest.
Similarly, in Nigeria, we have suffered the worst floods for 10 years. N’Djamena, the capital of neighbouring Chad has also had horrific unprecedented floods. Climate change has also brought record high temperatures in Europe, forest fires in California and more violent hurricanes in the Caribbean and Florida.
The only answer is unprecedented change to the world’s energy systems and a move away from carbon based fuels like oil, gas and coal. This appears to challenge the very logic of capitalism. The oil companies have known about the dangers since this 1950s, but since the 1980s they have been funding organisations that systematically undermined climate science and the dangers of global warming. Every year that change is delayed means that the necessary change will have to be more dramatic. Until then, the poor across the world are suffering untold consequences.
The latest annual climate change conference (COP27) will be held in November 2022, in Egypt. The repressive regime the people have suffered for nearly 10 years means that protests cannot actually be held in Egypt unlike with previous such conferences.
These conferences have provided a history of failure. The one in Paris in 2015 agreed to try to keep below two degrees warming and preferably 1.5 degrees. The world is still expected to reach the lower figure within the next few years and the higher figure within two decades. The promises from international governments have not been enough and are not being implemented.
As a result, not only is the world warming 10 times faster than during any time for the last 65 million years, but several irreversible tipping points are likely to increase this rate further.
These include the collapse of the polar ice sheets that could lead to further sea level rises with huge implications for the Niger Delta. Shifts to the West African Monsoon resulting in further falls to the level and uncertain timings of rainfall in Northern Nigeria. Permafrost thawing in Northern America and Russia with the release of huge amounts of methane and carbon dioxide. And disruption of the Atlantic Gulf Stream. If the critical thresholds are met any of these tipping points could lead to accelerated and irreversible impacts. As a result, temperature rises and other changes are expected to surge rather than just gradually increase.
Global climate change is already having a detrimental impact on many of the poorer people of Nigeria. Lake Chad has shrunk to only 4% of its size in 1960. This destroyed the local economy based on fishing and agriculture. Boko Haram was the direct result. Average temperatures have risen higher in Nigeria than the global average and are higher still for the more northern areas. The Niger Delta and other areas are already suffering flooding as a result of the rise in sea levels. Without change things will only get worse.
Climate change is due to the increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other green house gases, primarily by companies in the industrial countries. However, the most significant contribution to global warming in sub-Saharan Africa is gas flaring in the Niger Delta. Successive Nigerian governments have failed to prevent this and associated environmental damage to local communities.
In 1969 the Government gave the oil companies five years to end gas flaring. During his fist time as president, Buhari directed gas flaring to end in 1983 and introduced fines the following year. But this had little impact and flaring continued over the following decades.
The major pledge by Buhari at the Paris Climate Conference, in 2015 and subsequently, was to end gas flaring by 2030 – well over fifty years after it was originally to be eradicated. But until then, Nigeria will remain one of the top seven countries for gas flaring.
The global economic system, capitalism is still firmly based on carbon fuels, oil, gas and coal. It is hard to imagine this changing without fundamental change. This includes in Nigeria where the government is still dependant for half its income on oil and so continues to turn a blind eye to gas flaring and oil spills. Minor reforms will not be enough to prevent the devastation caused by climate change. This is only expected to get worse without a change to an economic system based on human need and planning – that is socialism!
The wonderful rallies in towns and cities across the country in support of the presidential bid by Peter Obi give us hope that change is possible. But at best, moving towards implementation of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) Charter of Workers Demands, with the support of effective mass strike action, will not be enough. The threat of further climate change, made worse by poverty and inequality, mean that fundamental change and socialism are essential.
This is what makes the role of Socialist Labour so essential. We are arguing for effective, active strikes so those like the university lecturers, ASUU members, are successful. This would give many more people the confidence to vote next year for a Labour Party president. This in turn will raise expectations that greater change is possible. This hope and confidence is necessary to achieve the fundamental changes that are needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
We need far more people to become active and join us in Socialist Labour. If you are hoping for change in the elections next year and for the deeper changes that will be necessary to achieve a fairer society that avoids the major impacts of climate change then we need you to join us!
