Amina Usman
We face intensifying inter-imperialist rivalry as the ‘liberal international order’ breaks down under pressure from the relative economic decline of the US. As a result, we see greater rivalry between both imperialist and regional powers. This competition is made worse by the declining rate of profit and a deepening ecological crisis.
The US-led Western bloc is fragmenting. Under the Trump administration, the United States has shifted towards a more unilateral, explicitly self-interested posture, economically, politically and militarily. It is increasingly reluctant to remain entrenched in the war in Ukraine and, notwithstanding its support for the genocide in Gaza, its strategic focus is increasingly oriented towards the Americas, but also global economic and increasingly military competition with China. By some measures, the Chinese economy is larger than that of the US, but the two economies are also greatly integrated.
US presence and interventions in Latin America are aimed at trying to stop migration into the US and push back against China’s growing influence across the region. Trump’s military intervention in Venezuela was a major show of force, partly aimed at controlling oil resources. While the next steps are unclear, it shows how the US wants to reassert its power in the region.
At the same time, the US is making its relationships with European powers conditional on political and economic shifts. These include forcing European states to shoulder a greater share of the military cost of NATO, especially in Ukraine. Trump is also reshaping trade relations to favour increased European imports of US goods, including military hardware, alongside deregulation of agriculture and technology under the threat of tariffs.
Competition with China continues to structure US strategy. However, there are indications that Washington may adopt a less overtly hawkish stance than previously anticipated. This reflects growing recognition of the risks posed by direct confrontation given China’s rapid movement up global value chains, its expanding trade relationships, economic interpenetration with US capitalism, and its increasing military capacity. This dynamic is therefore characterised by US determination to reassert its power globally through its overwhelming military might.
In the Middle East, this is shown by massive and continuing US support for Isreal and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia; and hostility to the Government of Iran extended to claiming to support the mass street protests. This is made more complex by the active roles of regional powers including UAE, Turkey and Egypt. This includes their military support for different forces and groups in Sudan and Syria, for example.
Across Africa, there is economic competition between the US and China, but other lesser powers are also involved. So Russia and Iran are supporting the military regimes in West Africa. The UAE is spreading its influence across Africa and several regional powers are involved in the fighting in Eastern DRC.