BY
FEMI ABORISADE
Presented to the TUC South West workshop on 23rd May 2024
INTRODUCTION
This paper attempts to assess the conditions of living of the masses through selected indices over a period of time with a view to empirically determining whether or not there has been an improvement or deterioration at the present time. The goal is to determine whether there is any hope for the masses for a better life under the regime of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and what to do if the answer is in the negative.
The following indices have been selected in undertaking the assessment:
Table 1: FUEL PRICE TERROR TABLE: 1966-2024 (April)
Between the prevailing price of N195/litre under the regime of President Buhari and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, there was a sudden rise in price by 177 per cent.
Between May 2023 and May 2024 (19/5/2024), there has been a rise of about 30% (precisely 29.63%).
Between the regime of President Jonathan (May 2015) with a price of N87/litre and May 2024 with a price of N700/litre, there has been an increase in price of about 700%.
In the entire history of fuel pricing, the price of N700/litre is undoubtedly the highest, the worst, the most punitive fuel price increase under the guise of fuel subsidy removal.
Table 2: DEVALUATION/EXCHANGE RATE TERROR TABLE – NAIRA : (USD) – 1972 TO 2024 (16 May)
Within one month of the reign of President Tinubu, May-June 2023, the currency was devalued by 30% against the USD.
Within six months (May-Dec 2023) the currency was devalued by 76%.
In the entire history of devaluation of currency (living standards), this regime has surpassed all others.
Table 3: INFLATION TERROR TABLE – 1999-2024.
The highest rate of inflation, from 1999 till date, has been recorded under the regime of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, 2023 to 2024 with food inflation exceeding 40%.
Table 4: MINIMUM WAGE AROUND THE WORLD AS AT 2023.
Nigeria is at the bottom of the ladder, the least minimum wage value, in USD terms.
A policy of yearly increase in minimum wage is key. The policy of wage indexation, known as scalamobile, in Italy, should be fought for.
According to the International Labour Organisation: Most frequently, countries adjust their minimum wages once a year. Some countries, adjust rates every six months, while others have 2-years intervals. In Nigeria it is every five years.
Table 5: BASIC FOOD COSTS COMPARED TO MINIMUM WAGES IN SELECTED COUNTRIES.
In Nigeria, it is calculated that basic food costs consumes 160% of the minimum wage compared to a country like the UK where basic food cost is only 6.5% of the minimum wage. So in Nigeria the cost of food alone is far more than the minimum wage.
TABLE 6: MINIMUM WAGE AND PURCHASING POWER
In 1981, the minimum wage was N125 per month. The exchange rate, Naira to the USD was 0.60 (i.e.60 Kobo to one USD) such that the minimum wage of N125 was equivalent to $208. In the same 1981, fuel was being sold for 15.3 Kobo. This meant that the minimum wage of N125 could purchase 417 litres of fuel.
Before President Bola Ahmed Tibubu was sworn in, the N461 was needed to buy $1USD such that the minimum wage of N30,000 was equivalent to $65. Fuel price was N195/litre and the minimum wage could buy 154 litres of fuel.
By 19/5/24, the minimum wage of N30,000 is worth only USD$20 at the exchange rate of N1,530 to USD$1. Fuel as at 19/5/2024 was being sold at N700/litre and the minimum wage of N30,000 could only buy 43 litres compared to 817 litres that the minimum wage could buy in 1981.
The most vicious and pernicious attacks on living standards have occurred under the rule of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
TABLE 7: CRUDE OIL PRICES/BARREL IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET: OCTOBER 2009-MAY 2024 (23rd MAY)
Within the period, the highest rates were $129 (29/4/2011); $133 (31/5/2022); $100 (29/9/2023).
At the rate of $100 in September of 2023, $90 on 22/4/2024 and $83 on 23/5/2024, crude oil process today are within the average from 2009 till date.
The bench mark oil price in the 2024 Budget is $75 and the price yesterday, 23/5/24, of $82 is more than the bench price.
The Labour movement should therefore reject the argument of crisis in the economy.
Table 8: AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION OF OIL MONEY AT MONTHLY FEDERATION ACCOUNT ALLOCATION COMMITTEE (FAAC) MEETINGS
Federal and state governments have plenty of money to pay a living wage. There are more than enough resources to meet basic needs. What the resources cannot meet is the greed of the few.
Last year, 2023 had the highest average monthly share for more than a decade, almost 20% higher than 2022 and nearly 40% higher than in 2020.
The distribution of N1,208bn in May this year (2024) is clearly the highest over a period of twelve (12) years.
The above listed eight (8) Tables are presented one after another at the end of the paper. The key points to note about each Table are summarized under each Table. In other words, a qualitative explanation of the quantitative data under each of the Tables is to be found under each Table. It is hoped that the reader would first take a look at the Tables and pay particular attention to the qualitative explanation of each table before proceeding to the remaining parts of this paper.
The findings from the tables confirm governance by state-imposed economic terrorism. In the midst of plenty, majority of Nigerians are chronically poor, through the series of economic policies of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (PBAT) regime.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), a Federal Government Agency, in a survey conducted between November 2021 and February 2022, 63% of persons living within Nigeria (i.e. 133 million people) are multidimensionally poor[1].
GOAL OF THE RULING CLASS: UNDERSTANDING PRESIDENT BOLA AHMED TINUBU
However, it is critically important to appreciate that the capitalist ruling class does not rule in the mutual interest of all classes. The ruling class rules, not in the interest of the “nation” but in the interest of the capitalist class.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the best representative of this class who does not pretend that he is in power to rule in the interest of the masses. He makes it clear that, for the masses, there is no alternative to his pervasive poverty-perpetrating policies.
The full paper is available for pdf download here.