Michael Roberts (January 2023)
One of the speakers at the Socialist Labour public Zoom meeting at the end of January was Michael Roberts. He is a well-known Marxist economist based in Europe. The slides from his talk are available for free download from the link below.
These slides put the current economic challenges of Nigeria in the global context and suggest that the economy faces a bumpy ride this year, at least. The global economy is expected to slow down this year, with many countries facing a recession.
Nigerian capitalism is not successful. “Low economic competitiveness and weak productive capacity; concentration of economic growth in a few sectors; low productivity; low investment inflows into productive sectors.” But there was sustained economic growth from at least 2002 to 2015.
Nigeria’s GDP is projected to drop to 3% growth in 2023. Inflation of 20%, unemployment 37%. Youth unemployment 53%, poverty ratio over 50%. Trade balance into deficit as oil exports fall. Government debt ratio rising (although still relatively low compared to other African countries).
Over the medium term the majority of Nigerians face a number of severe challenges as a result of climate change, increasing poverty and inequality, and a slowdown in productivity. The global background is also more unstable with increased hostility between the US and China:
https://thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com/2023/01/the-2023-slump.pdf
